Solution: today, I'm starting my “State of the Race” series of posts, where I'll provide an update on the most interesting developments of the presidential race. Of course, some things will merit a full post and will still get that attention; the purpose of this post, and others that will follow, however, is to give a brief, cursory explanation of interesting phenomena from the GOP primary campaign (and, if I deem them entertaining enough, other races as well). Hopefully, you will find my synopses just as fun as my in-depth political posts. OK, stop laughing now...seriously, stop it. It's rude.
Fundraising: Now, where to begin? I'll start with the end of the 2nd quarter of campaign fundraising. As you may have gathered from the relentless blitz of fundraising emails from all candidates (including President Obama) last week, June 30th was the last day of fundraising for the 2nd quarter of the year. This means that all of the money that candidates have raised since March will be made public, a perfect opportunity for candidates to brag about their popularity... or start the spin machine about why they came up short.
While the full results haven't been made public yet, some details are coming to light. First of all, it was a terrible month for former Governor Tim Pawlenty, who raised less than $3 million for his primary campaign (he raised $1.5 million more for the general election, but that can't be spent on the primary and will need to be returned should he lose the nomination). This was supposed to be T-Paw's moment to prove he could be the anti-Romney; instead, with Romney likely to raise in the neighborhood of $20 million, Pawlenty is coming up woefully short, another in a series of blows that may eventually knock him out of the race. So much for my predicting skills.
A short update on everyone else's funds (with a probable full blog post on it to follow when official results come out on July 15th): Congressman Ron Paul had, unsurprisingly, a decent month with about $4.5 million, but his fundraising skills have never translated to electoral support in the past. Herman Cain did OK as well with over $2 million (remember that no one actually knows who he is), but had a bad week in other ways. Former Governor Jon Huntsman, who only officially announced his campaign a couple weeks ago, raised over $4 million, but half of that is out of his own pocket.
Cain's campaign problems: In spite of his decent fundraising numbers, Herman Cain probably wishes that this week didn't happen the way it did. After strong polling numbers in June, it appears that his momentum has stalled—first, his only staffer in New Hampshire, a critically important state for almost every candidate, quit, saying the campaign wasn't putting enough effort into that state. A few days later, his leadership staff in Iowa, home of the first-in-the-nation caucuses, did the same, and now there have been allegations of Iowa staffers engaging in sexual and professional misconduct. Don't feel too bad for him though; he probably still has a bigger staff than former Speaker Newt Gingrich.
New Hampshire poll: A WMUR/UNH poll released today shows Romney with a large—but decreasing—lead in the Granite State, with Congresswoman Michele Bachmann starting to creep up behind him. Romney took 35% support to Bachmann's 12%, but Romney's support was down six points from two weeks ago, while Bachmann's was up eight points. Also boding ill for Romney is the fact that these numbers are worse than at this point in 2007; he went on to lose the state and the nomination to Senator John McCain after leading in polls for months. While he has set up a fundraising juggernaut and is already campaigning against President Obama rather than his fellow Republican candidates, it still looks like Romney is beatable. Meanwhile, Jon Huntsman, who is treating New Hampshire as a must-win, is polling at only 3%.
Will Bachmann be the one? In addition to being in second place in New Hampshire, Bachmann is beating big-name Republicans in Iowa polling so far. If she can pull off a victory in Iowa (which would effectively end the campaign of fellow Minnesotan Pawlenty), she doesn't necessarily need to win New Hampshire: because Republicans have adopted delegate-apportionment rules like the Democrats did in 2008, Bachmann can win Iowa, have a strong second place showing in Hew Hampshire, crush the opposition in South Carolina (territory ripe for her socially conservative message), and then cruise to the nomination, much like then-Senator Obama did in 2008 after upsetting Hilary Clinton in Iowa. Not bad for a Congresswoman that most (myself included) think is a little nuts.
Will Perry Run? Bachmann's plans, though, could have a giant wrench thrown into them if Texas Governor Rick Perry decides to get into the race. I've already discussed Perry's odds of entering the race, but they may be on the rise even more, as TIME Magazine is reporting that, behind the scenes, the Christian right is lining up behind him. For those who don't know, these are the leaders who usually play kingmaker in the early contests (see: Huckabee's victory in Iowa in 2008 and Romney's epic collapse that year). Things are looking better and better for the governor, so expect an announcement regarding his plans in the near future.
Fun Facts of the Day: Jon Huntsman dropped out of high school to play the keyboard in a band called Wizard, and his favorite restaurant is a taco truck. Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter declared last weekend that he would be entering the presidential race; don't feel too bad if you haven't heard of him. Side note: he also played in a band; it was called the New Flying Squirrels (which is awesome) and he currently plays in a band called the Second Amendments.
That's all, folks! What stories did I miss? Tell me in the comments section below.
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1 comments:
WHAT IS THAT PICTURE OF JON HUNTSMAN, oh my God.
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