You've Never Heard of Him, but Herman Cain Wants to be President

In early January, while political heavyweights like former governors Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty were still cautiously laying the groundwork for their highly-expected presidential runs, the first candidate for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination announced the start of his campaign. The only problem was that no one had ever heard of him. Herman Cain, the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza, is running for president, and may be exactly the dark horse that GOP voters are looking for.

Herman Cain wants YOU

While his candidacy may have looked like a joke to many observers at first (myself included—I didn't include him on my list of possible GOP nominees), Cain is starting to not only have a huge impact on the race, but also is looking more and more like he has a real chance of winning the nomination. Recent polling this week has shown Cain in an increasingly strong position as the primary campaigns start to heat up, with Gallup showing him winning a strong 8% in national polls, up from less than 1% a month ago, and good for fifth place among Republican candidates. A Zogby poll has him in an even better position with 14% support, trailing only New Jersey governor Chris Christie as the top candidate that GOP voters want to see winning the nomination. CNN also has him in double digits.

Cain's support is even more impressive when looking at individual primary states. In his native Georgia, he is leading the candidate pool, winning far more support than native Georgian Newt Gingrich or conservative hero Congresswoman Michele Bachmann. The real money, for Cain, is the latest Public Policy Polling survey of Iowa GOP voters, in which Cain garners an extremely strong 15% support, behind only Romney and tied with former governor Sarah Palin.

Let me say that again: in Iowa, perhaps the most important state in the primary process, Herman Cain is polling in second place and is tied with perhaps the most famous figure in the Republican party.

One poll can be an anomaly, but clearly Cain is starting to gather some serious momentum. The New York Times' Nate Silver argues that it is unheard of for a candidate to be getting as much support as he is despite having a miniscule 30% name recognition. Cain himself (who enjoys referring to himself in the third person) said this weekend that he is now a frontrunner in the race and Tea Party voters, who will be a vital voting bloc in the primaries, love him.

Trust the Huffington Post to find the best picture of Cain

Clearly, his candidacy is not the joke that some believed it would be. But will Cain be able to win the nomination? (Sorry, that was a terrible pun. Won't happen again.)

Honestly, my answer is still no.

That's not to diminish the immense accomplishments that Cain has already achieved, nor to ignore his support among conservatives. Clearly, Cain is a viable candidate and will likely stay in the race all the way through the Iowa caucuses and maybe even other early contests next year. But I don't think he will win any of them. Cain's support is coming mainly from Tea Party conservatives who know him from his radio show last year and love his passion for small government. In a campaign season where Democrats are praying for the most radical, conservative opponent they can find, though, Cain is their dream opponent (behind Sarah Palin, of course). Some of my personal favorite Herman-Cain-is-vaguely-crazy quotes are when he referred to Planned Parenthood as “planned genocide,” and when he encouraged conservatives to legitimately revolt against President Obama during his 2010 CPAC speech. Cain strikes me as way too far to the right of mainstream Republicans to be truly viable, not to mention the fact that, historically, the Republican party doesn't nominate outsiders: with the exception of President George W. Bush, every GOP presidential candidate since the 1950s has been extremely well-known both within the party and nationally.

My take on his early polling numbers is that, while impressive, they will stay close to where they are from here on out. As I said, many Tea Partiers, his main support base, knew him already and so are more willing to support him. This long before the primaries actually start, the people paying attention to the race tend to be the party faithful, not the mainstream, more moderate voters that later dominate elections. Therefore, even as more voters start paying attention to the race and learn Cain's name, I doubt they'll be lining up behind him; instead, they will likely opt for more traditional candidates like Romney or Pawlenty (or even if they are conservative, a Bachmann or a Congressman Ron Paul is a more conventional choice). The conservative voters who are most likely to support Cain already know about him, so I doubt there are too many possible Cain supporters left to be converted.

Again, this is not to knock what Cain has achieved so far. My guess is that he will continue to be a factor in this race, very possibly finishing in the top three in Iowa, which would be a huge upset and would instantly make him a senior figure within the party. He probably won't have much support in New Hampshire, but South Carolina could be a strong state for him. If he plays his cards right and campaigns hard, I could easily see Cain on the short list for VP in 2012, and maybe even for the nomination in 2016.

This time around though, I don't think Cain can do it. He's too conservative and doesn't have enough political experience to actually defeat the frontrunners in the race. Keep an eye on Herman Cain, though. Because the Republican establishment certainly is.