A lot can change in three weeks... but not much actually has. Despite the fact that I have been neglecting my duties in blogging about the 2012 GOP primaries, the candidates are all pretty close to where I left them last time. Still, though, there have been a few interesting developments: a new candidate is moving closer to entering the race, voters supposedly wish that two more would do the same, Speaker Newt Gingrich shows that he really is incredibly unaware of how people view him, and Governor Tim Pawlenty is still being... well... Tim Pawlenty.
Perry has a divine calling: Texas Governor Rick Perry seems to be getting ever closer to joining the presidential race. Iowa's Republican governor Terry Branstad said last week that he believed Perry would announce his candidacy soon, and Governor Perry himself increased speculation that he would run after an interview in Iowa (side note: why would anyone spend this much time in Iowa if they weren't running?). In the interview, Perry claimed that he thinks that running for president is what he's “been called to do.” One person who probably isn't making that call: Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, who, due to Tim Pawlenty's continued struggles—which I'll get to later—looks increasingly likely to get the win in Iowa that her campaign needs. If Perry enters, with his strong religious and socially conservative credentials, look for him to go straight at Bachmann in Iowa, and, if he's lucky, steal some of her momentum in the early caucuses. Perry's strong polling this week can't be making Bachmann any more comfortable, either.
Run, Rudy, Run: According to a recent CNN poll, the new name that GOP voters most want to see may be an old one. The national poll showed that Rudy Giuliani, the former New York City mayor who has not announced a run for president, is in third place behind former governor Mitt Romney and current governor Rick Perry, who also hasn't announced his campaign. Tied for third with Giuliani is another name that just won't die—former governor Sarah Palin. The poll shows Romney with 16% of the vote, Perry with 14% and Giuliani and Palin tied with 13%, which is within the margin of error. Incredibly, it looks increasingly likely that the GOP field isn't finished growing yet, which speaks to just how uneasy many Republican voters are about the current crop of extreme candidates.
Romney still looks beatable: Despite the fact that he is—nominally, at least—the frontrunner in the race, I still don't think that Romney will be the GOP nominee. He has continued his strategy of running as the already-christened standard-bearer for the Republican Party, but he no longer has as much reason to do so. Michele Bachmann has taken the lead in many Iowa polls and nationally she is gaining on him. Even in New Hampshire, Romney's stronghold where he desperately needs a blowout win, she is decreasing her (admittedly still sizable) deficit in the polls. One thing that Romney has, though, is money: he vastly out-raised every other candidate in the race, especially with Bachmann raising only $4 million in the second quarter of the year, far below the $8 million that some predicted.
Running as the frontrunner has given Romney the opportunity to use his business experience against President Obama and has also given him a huge media presence, both through advertising and the news. Still, though, he seems to be playing it safe, a strategy that I don't think will work well for him. His campaign reminds me a lot of the campaign of then-Senator Hilary Clinton back in 2008: she also ran as a frontrunner, and didn't engage her upstart opponent Senator Barack Obama until he had taken all momentum away from her. Is Romney destined to lose? Absolutely not, but I can't shake the feeling that he's going to have a disappointing year in 2012.
Pawlenty still struggling: Just when you think there's nowhere to go but up, Governor Tim Pawlenty shows us all just how low he can go—in the polls, that is. Fresh off an extremely disappointing fundraising quarter and desperately trying to get back in the news, Pawlenty tried to pick a fight with Bachmann over her lack of executive experience, calling her accomplishments “nonexistent.” However, when asked about it he declined to hammer his point home, drawing even more accusations that he isn't tough enough for the race and opening the door for Bachmann to come back swinging. In other T-Paw related news, his campaign manager claims that anything above a 6th place finish in next month's Ames (Iowa) straw poll will be a success, which is laughable for a candidate who needs to win Iowa to even have a chance at winning the nomination.
Where is Jon Huntsman? After entering the race with a great deal of national fanfare, former Governor Jon Huntsman has been surprisingly quiet on the campaign trail. While no one expected him to challenge Romney right away, many Huntsman supporters at least expected him to make a splash in New Hampshire. Unfortunately for him, he seems to be doing the opposite. He only raised about $2 million in the second quarter of the year (although he did lend his campaign an additional $2 million of his own money) and his support in New Hampshire, a must-win state for him, has actually declined. Not the start he was hoping for, I'm sure.
Fun facts of the day: Earlier in the campaign cycle, it was revealed that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich had a multi-million dollar credit line at Tiffany's (you know, the jewelry store). In an apparent attempt to prove just how irrelevant he can be, Gingrich and his wife were once again spotted at Tiffany's this weekend. Clearly, running for president can't put a damper on his desire for shiny things. Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson has officially started his presidential campaign—can you say game-changer? (Hint: he's not. At all). Several political minds have started forming organizations aimed at electing a third party candidate in 2012. The most prominent, named “Americans Elect,” is an Internet-based system that aims to get its candidate on the ballot in all 50 states by 2012. I'm not expecting them to go anywhere with it, but if they do, you heard it here first.
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