Tim Pawlenty: The Right Candidate at the Wrong Time

As I mentioned in my post yesterday, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty officially dropped out of the presidential race on Sunday after a disappointing third-place finish at the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa. For the last few months, Pawlenty had been dogged by one piece of bad campaign news after another: he lost considerable ground in polls, both in Iowa and nationally, his fundraising numbers for the second quarter of the year were far below where they needed to be and he chose not to attack former governor Mitt Romney to his face on national television, contributing to the already widespread perception that he was too weak for the race. Still though, for all his political faults, and they were many, there is nothing in Pawlenty’s political biography that disqualified him from being president. Instead, he was a good candidate who was the victim of bad circumstances.

The fact that this gopher was Pawlenty’s #1 fan should have set off some warning bells.

The State of the Presidential Race – August 14, 2011

Well, the first major test of the 2012 GOP primaries is over, and the field today certainly looks different than it did on Friday. With a major candidate out of the race and another one getting in, it's becoming clear that the GOP nominee will be one of three people and yesterday's Ames Straw Poll may have altered the race for all of them. Most of all, though, we learned that this primary contest isn't going to be over quickly; with three strong candidates in the race, don't expect to know who the nominee is going to be until May or June of next year. Get excited.

Really, this is just a gratuitous amount of confetti.

Debate Roundup: August 11th GOP Primary Debate

The second major debate of the GOP primary season just ended and brought a little more clarity to the standings of the Republican presidential candidates. While we will know more about how the race will look going forward after this weekend's Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, the debate provided us with a glimpse at which candidates have a chance to win and which are dead in the water. While a “State of the Race” post will probably be forthcoming early next week, for now I'll just stick to my own post-debate format and rank the winners and losers from the standpoint of what the debate means for their campaigns.

Mitt Romney, lording over everyone else. Just the way he likes it.

The State of the Presidential Race – July 24, 2011

A lot can change in three weeks... but not much actually has. Despite the fact that I have been neglecting my duties in blogging about the 2012 GOP primaries, the candidates are all pretty close to where I left them last time. Still, though, there have been a few interesting developments: a new candidate is moving closer to entering the race, voters supposedly wish that two more would do the same, Speaker Newt Gingrich shows that he really is incredibly unaware of how people view him, and Governor Tim Pawlenty is still being... well... Tim Pawlenty.

Rick Perry claims God wants him to run. No comment from God.

The State of the Presidential Race – July 5, 2011

For about a week now, I've been struggling to write a blog post on recent developments in the 2012 GOP primary contests for several reasons. First of all, there's just too damn much to talk about (for a nerd like me, anyway): Tim Pawlenty's ongoing campaign implosion, Michele Bachmann's stunning rise to the top, Herman Cain's equally surprising struggles after his previously positive headlines, the fact that Jon Huntsman played in a band called Wizard and the entrance into the race of that what's-his-face congressman from Michigan—with choices like these, how could I possibly decide? Seriously, though, it was a struggle. Additionally, while all of these topics are great, none of them really has enough substance to dedicate a whole blog post to. Clearly, this was a problem for all involved.

Solution: today, I'm starting my “State of the Race” series of posts, where I'll provide an update on the most interesting developments of the presidential race. Of course, some things will merit a full post and will still get that attention; the purpose of this post, and others that will follow, however, is to give a brief, cursory explanation of interesting phenomena from the GOP primary campaign (and, if I deem them entertaining enough, other races as well). Hopefully, you will find my synopses just as fun as my in-depth political posts. OK, stop laughing now...seriously, stop it. It's rude.

Tim Pawlenty's campaign is in need of money, so the candidate is cutting back on the finer things.

Debate Roundup: June 13th GOP Primary Debate

Tonight was the first debate of the 2012 Republican primary season and it provided no shortage of awkward moments, political catchphrases and blatant misunderstandings about how the economy works. Instead of doing an entire recap of the debate, though, I'm going to give my analysis of the winners and losers in tonight's debate and how it may affect the race going forward. So, I may miss some of the better... ahem... “policy” gems of the debate, like Speaker Gingrich comparing Muslims to Nazis, or Congresswoman Bachmann saying that she thinks there should be both a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage and independent state laws governing the issue, but I hope that you'll forgive me.

And so, from biggest loser to biggest winner, here's how the debate played out.

Dear CNN, this stage is so 2008. Step it up.

Gingrich's Loss is Perry's Gain

It's been a bad couple of weeks for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. He started his campaign for president with several high profile missteps, some of which I've already blogged about. Just to review:

• In his first Sunday interview after announcing his candidacy, he attacked Congressman Paul Ryan's budget plan and was subsequently crucified by the right.
• He got glittered.
• It was discovered that his wife has a $250,000 expense account at Tiffany's. So much for portraying himself as blue-collar.

Finally, all of these problems have come back to bite him, as it was announced on Thursday that senior members of the Gingrich campaign had resigned en masse, including his chief strategist, campaign manager and campaign chairman.

Since Gingrich had very little traction in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, few candidates already in the race will directly benefit from his campaign's catastrophic implosion. There is one Republican, though, who was probably very happy upon hearing this news: Texas governor Rick Perry.

I wonder if Gingrich realized that this would be the least of his problems.

You've Never Heard of Him, but Herman Cain Wants to be President

In early January, while political heavyweights like former governors Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty were still cautiously laying the groundwork for their highly-expected presidential runs, the first candidate for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination announced the start of his campaign. The only problem was that no one had ever heard of him. Herman Cain, the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza, is running for president, and may be exactly the dark horse that GOP voters are looking for.

Herman Cain wants YOU

The Woman Who Would Not Be President

The recent spate of prospective presidential candidates dropping out of the Republican race and the lack of a true social conservative in the contest has led to rampant speculation of the return of everyone's favorite maverick: former governor Sarah Palin. Several other factors have led some to hope that she may be getting ready to run for the Republican nomination in 2012, but I wouldn't count her in just yet. Most of what we know about Palin points to the inescapable fact that she no longer wants to run for president.

(A fake but hilarious picture of Palin, from NewsPirates)

And the winner is...

This year's race for the Republican presidential nomination is one of the most wide-open contests in modern history: every frontrunner has fairly significant reasons why they likely won't win, and the whole contest is practically begging for a dark horse to come and steal the nomination. In the past few months, there has been a steady stream of candidates not running or encountering debilitating problems affecting their own chances at winning. So, where does the race stand? To find out, let's take a look at the candidates and where they stand. I'm only going to talk about candidates that I think have a legitimate chance of even making noise in the campaign; sorry if I skip over your favorite candidate, but if there are any incensed Buddy Roemer fans out there, feel free to call me an idiot in the comments section.