Get Your Government Hands Off My Medicare... Oh, Wait, That's Not What I Meant

Last night's special election in New York's 26^th Congressional District showed the political world two things: first, that Democrats aren't as hopelessly incompetent at messaging as previously thought, and second, that the Republican Party has a serious Medicare problem.

(Congresswoman-elect Kathy Hochul, from NYT)

For those who have better things to do with their time than troll AP for election results in Buffalo, NY, there was an election last night to replace former Congressman Christopher Lee (R), who resigned after emailing a shirtless picture of himself to a woman he met on Craigslist. The Democrat in the race, Kathy Hochul, defeated her main Republican opponent, Jane Corwin, with Tea Party candidate Jack Davis garnering 9% of the vote.

While some would say that the presence of a Tea Party candidate is what doomed the GOP in the race, there is evidence to the contrary. Davis isn't your typical Tea Party candidate: he's run in the district before as a Democrat, so his conservative credentials are pretty weak. Additionally, Hochul ended up winning with a near majority (over 47%) of the vote, so it's unlikely that she would have lost had Davis not been in the race.

Instead, many believe that the reason why Corwin lost in a solidly Republican district is something that rarely has an effect on American elections: actual policy differences. Specifically, Corwin was forced to come out in favor of Paul Ryan's plan to reform Medicare, which would involve changing it to a voucher system under which Medicare recipients need to buy their own health care. In my last post, I talked about the GOP establishment's embrace of Paul Ryan's plan and their immediate condemnation of anyone who disparages it. Corwin tried to walk a fine line on Medicare, saying that it was a great first step in the debate while trying to argue (erroneously) that it doesn't include a voucher system, which she would oppose. Regardless of her politicking, the national GOP support for her candidacy made it impossible for Corwin to completely come out against Ryan, opening the door for the Hochul campaign to make the Medicare issue the crux of the campaign.

(Paul Ryan, from The Northwest Report)

This is where the Democrats' messaging campaign actually worked, for once. Hochul relentlessly hammered Corwin on the Medicare issue, using vague talking points accusing Corwin of selling out seniors and being in lock-step with radical Republicans. The national Democratic Party and prominent figures helped as well: both the DNC and independent Democrat-led groups funded ads highlighting Corwin's (tenuous) support of the Ryan plan. Amazingly, the Democrats were able to control the dialogue in this campaign, and it may have very well won the election for them.

The GOP has a bigger problem than just this loss, though. New York's 26^th District voted 60% Republican in 2010 and, all things being equal, was generally considered to be safely Red before this election. Going from 60% down to 43% of the electorate in less than two years is a serious drop and Medicare is not an issue that is going to go away for the Republican Party. Because GOP leadership figures have embraced it and House Republicans voted for it, Democrats will make this issue number one in 2012's individual congressional elections, not to mention in the presidential race. Now that it has undeniably hurt them among their core constituents, the question is whether or not the party will continue to push Ryan's reforms. During the Tea Party's protests against health care reform and the subsequent growth of the movement, Republicans have relentlessly called for a smaller federal government, with Ryan's budget plan—which includes fairly draconian domestic spending cuts and of course his Medicare proposal—being the culmination of the Tea Party's desires. Ironic signs like the one pictured below were common at Tea Party rallies, showing just how much protestors supposedly wanted government out of their lives.

(Tea Party Rally sign, from The Daily Caller)

Now, though, faced with the choice of keeping Medicare the way it is or changing it to the Ryan plan, many voters—especially seniors, a vital Republican demographic—are worried about the effects of the plan and are opposing it. Key moderate Republican senators Scott Brown of Massachusetts and Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine have said that they will vote against the plan when it comes before the Senate. With this new evidence that Medicare is hurting Republicans at the polls, will there be more defections soon? My guess is not yet, at least among the leadership: now that the GOP has made Medicare reform a major issue of their own, I think they will stick with it to try and gain some benefits as well. For now though, Republicans are losing the public opinion battle over Medicare and Democrats are not going to let them just ignore it. As much as Tea Party members and Republicans claimed to hate big government, it looks like many of them prefer the devil they know over the devil they don't.